Business Cycle Intelligence
Global Cycle Monitor
Pulse shows the current economic signal. Direction shows the economic outlook for the next 6–12 months — a probabilistic forward signal, not a forecast.
The US economy is currently in its expansion phase, holding in expansion over the next 6–12 months. This describes where the cycle stands today — risk context, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Expansion
Holding in Expansion
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What's driving this reading?
Economy growing above trend. Labour markets tightening, credit conditions easing, and industrial output rising across key sectors.
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Government Catalysts
Sector
Now — expansion positioning
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Forward — rotation signal
Forward rotation signals
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Now — expansion positioning
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Sign up — it's freeUS Cycle History — 1994 to 2026 (389 months)
Algorithmic classifier (Pulse signal)