Business Cycle Intelligence
Global Cycle Monitor
Pulse shows the current economic signal. Direction shows the economic outlook for the next 1–6 months — a probabilistic forward signal, not a forecast. Beyond six months this read is not distinguishable from the long-run base rate.
Direction leans toward a slowdown call more often than a slowdown actually follows — read it as a lean to watch, not a high-confidence call.
The US economy is currently in its expansion phase, holding in expansion over the next 1–6 months. This describes where the cycle stands today — risk context, not a forecast or a recommendation. Beyond six months this read is not distinguishable from the long-run base rate.
Expansion
Holding in Expansion
Show the indicators behind this signal
What's driving this reading?
Economy growing above trend. Labour markets tightening, credit conditions easing, and industrial output rising across key sectors.
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Government Catalysts
Sector
Descriptive — how each sector has historically behaved by cycle phase. Context, not investment advice.
Now — how sectors behaved in expansion
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Forward — historical behaviour into the next phase
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See plansAsset Class
Descriptive — how each asset class has historically behaved by cycle phase. Context, not investment advice.
Now — how asset classes behaved in expansion
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See plansthe chance this market is in contraction or trough at some point in the next one to six months, measured on its own history.
Published with this market's own track record, because the skill differs by market and one global claim would be false somewhere. On this market's history it ranked the months correctly 83% of the time over 265 months.
On this market's own record a typical expansion has about 43 months left from here.
How far through a typical expansion this market is, and how often expansions this mature have run on. This is context on where the cycle stands, not advice about what to hold.
Based on a small number of completed expansions in this market, so treat the typical length as indicative rather than precise.
Read against the market's own base rate, not against 100%. Because downturn months are a minority, always saying "no downturn" already scores highly — the figure that matters is how much better than that this read has done.
US Cycle History — 2025 to 2026 (12 months)
Algorithmic classifier (Pulse signal)
NBER official recessions
Red: NBER official recessions. Dated retrospectively with a lag — not real-time.
Showing the last 12 months.Create a free accountto see the full history.