Markets
Market Regime
Valuation, breadth, credit spreads , and sentiment signals — updated nightly. Bridges macro cycle phase to market-level conditions.
What each stage is good for
Lift is how much more often a severe decline followed this stage than followed an average month in the same market. 1.0 means the stage told you nothing beyond the base rate.
| Stage | Episodes | Lift | Markets with lift | What it is good for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull-1 recovery | 83 | 0.92× | 2 of 10 | Describing where a market sits off a low. No forward edge. |
| Bull-2 participation | 104 | 0.84× | 1 of 10 | Describing a healthy trend. No forward edge — and it is the most common label at the onset of a severe drawdown. |
| Bull-3 euphoria/topping | 116 | 0.78× | 0 of 10 | Character and context only. Nothing predictive — this stage must not be read as a warning. |
| Bear-1/2 decline | 123 | 0.97× | 0 of 10 | Confirming a downtrend already under way. No added forward edge over the base rate. |
| Bear-3 capitulation | 74 | 1.75× | 8 of 10 | The one stage that carries information — a concurrent risk state with a measurably higher conditional severity. |
Measured across 10 markets, episode-level, on reference-dated history. Descriptive risk context — not a forecast, timing, or allocation call.
§4
Market Regime
StarterValuation, breadth, credit, and sentiment signals — is the market cheap or expensive, broad or narrow, risk-on or risk-off?
China's market regime currently reads insufficient data — 0 of 0 signals constructive, 0 stretched. This is risk context, not advice.
Show all indicator readings
Full market regime analysis — all 5 indicator groups — unlocks with Starter.
See plans →