Markets
Market Regime
Valuation, breadth, credit spreads , and sentiment signals — updated nightly. Bridges macro cycle phase to market-level conditions.
US — 16 of 18 indicators live (price & trend)
The framework defines 19 indicators. Several have no source outside the US, so this market is read on 18 of them — fewer inputs, not a weaker signal on the ones shown.
Cross-market comparison uses a separate score of 72.2, built only from the signals every market has. The headline score above is read against this market’s own set of indicators, so it is meaningful here but not comparable with another market’s.
Some inputs used are dated
Bull-3 euphoria / topping — 2 of 7 warning signs turning.
Risk-context and historical base rates — not a market-timing call.
This read confirms on a monthly cadence. The stage changes about once a month, so a day-to-day move is usually noise rather than a change of state.
Not every marker has a source in every market. The count below is this market's own denominator, not the full framework. 7 of 7 turn-detection markers have a source in this market.
Inflection assessment, 6- and 12-month base rates, and the full verdict unlock with Starter.
See plans →What each stage is good for
Lift is how much more often a severe decline followed this stage than followed an average month in the same market. 1.0 means the stage told you nothing beyond the base rate.
| Stage | Episodes | Lift | Markets with lift | What it is good for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull-1 recovery | 83 | 0.92× | 2 of 10 | Describing where a market sits off a low. No forward edge. |
| Bull-2 participation | 104 | 0.84× | 1 of 10 | Describing a healthy trend. No forward edge — and it is the most common label at the onset of a severe drawdown. |
| Bull-3 euphoria/topping | 116 | 0.78× | 0 of 10 | Character and context only. Nothing predictive — this stage must not be read as a warning. |
| Bear-1/2 decline | 123 | 0.97× | 0 of 10 | Confirming a downtrend already under way. No added forward edge over the base rate. |
| Bear-3 capitulation | 74 | 1.75× | 8 of 10 | The one stage that carries information — a concurrent risk state with a measurably higher conditional severity. |
Measured across 10 markets, episode-level, on reference-dated history. Descriptive risk context — not a forecast, timing, or allocation call.
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Market Regime
StarterValuation, breadth, credit, and sentiment signals — is the market cheap or expensive, broad or narrow, risk-on or risk-off?
Based on 16 of 18 indicators — regions differ in how many series are available, and an indicator that does not report is left out of the score entirely, so these scores are not directly comparable across regions.
US's market regime currently reads constructive — 9 of 16 signals constructive, 4 stretched. This is risk context, not advice.
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Full market regime analysis — all 5 indicator groups — unlocks with Starter.
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